The Moral Path to China/Taiwan Reunification
If China is so intent on reunification, then beat Taiwan at its own game.
The recent Taiwan election victory for the ruling pro-independence party was, though not a great surprise, a setback for mainland China’s annexation ambitions. The CCP does not seem able to take its eyes off the “prize” about 100 miles off its southeast coast. As with Hong Kong, we’re not talking a large geographical expansion. At about 0.4% the size of China, the island is slightly larger than Maryland. However, at roughly $32K, Taiwan’s GDP/capita is circa 3 times that of its “big brother,” and the country is home to a large share of the world’s chip manufacturers, which may explain part of the mainland regime’s appetite for “reunification.”
But the main driver is the same old, tired, nationalist interest that authoritarian regimes of the fascist kind tend to take in their neighbors. As conditions worsen at home due to suffocating individual rights violations and a worsening economy, the focus shifts to external objectives such as “reunification” that may divert the attention of a restless and discontent populace. But it’s a dangerous balancing act that sooner or later is destined to fail. Fascism of the Xi Jinping kind—fasXism—is no different from other oppressive expressions in this regard. As I wrote about a year ago
But it will eventually fail as surely as totalitarianism failed for Xi Jinping’s 20th century predecessors Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin, Mao Zedong, and Pol Pot. And it will fail as inevitably as totalitarianism will fail for Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Iran’s Ayatollah Khamene’i, Cuba’s post-Castro regime, and Venezuela’s Nicholas Maduro. FasXism, like its totalitarian siblings, will meet its demise because of its ultimate, unalterable enemy: human nature.
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Tightening the totalitarian thumbscrews in response to domestic unrest will fuel the downward spiral at home and make Taiwan’s success even more stark in comparison. Mainlanders will start to ask themselves “Why can’t we have what they have?” further stoking the fire of discontent, posing additional threats to the regime.
In the 2022 Frazer/CATO Human Freedom Index (based on 2020 data) Taiwan places 14th and mainland China 152nd. While the index is not an exact science, the gulf between the two is indisputably large. What on earth would the Taiwanese have to gain from closer ties? Having observed the Chinese crackdown on Hong Kong obviously further strengthens the islanders in their conviction that they are best served by continuing as an independent nation.
However, if the CCP were truly serious about unification, why not try moral carrots instead of immoral sticks to entice the island’s inhabitants? Why not present them with an offer they can’t refuse? Take a page from the German reunification in the 1990’s. What made the East Germans want to join their West brethren? West Germany’s freedom and affluence, of course. If the CCP radically shifted its strategy and made China a bastion of freedom and prosperity, the Taiwanese may come knocking like the East Germans did. For all its relative freedoms, Taiwan is a welfare state with much of the same sclerotic nationalized health care, retirement and education systems, and abundance of stifling regulations, as most Western and Western influenced countries. With a concerted effort, outcompeting them in the “best places to live” contest shouldn’t be that hard. Impossible, you say? Probably under the current regime. But China has changed direction many times in the past. Most of the time from bad to worse, but sometimes for the better, as after Mao’s death in the late 1970’s. Who says it cannot happen again? The Chinese diaspora, not only in Taiwan, but in many locales around the globe has shown that it thrives on freedom. And the mainland population has proved the point as well over the past 40 years until Xi’s tightening of the totalitarian noose, bringing themselves out of poverty in a short time on a scale unprecedented in human history. Chinese individuals are no different from the rest of us in this regard. We have human nature in common. Most of us simply want to be left alone to pursue our rational self-interest, that is, what is best for ourselves and our loved ones, while respecting that others have the same desire. To that end, we want a place to live where the government protects our rights to do so.
It’s obviously a really long shot but should Xi and his CCP cronies wake up one morning and decide it’s time to shed China’s expansionist foreign policy, the country could set an example for the rest of the world. Instead of trying to rope in other countries with Belt-and-Road initiatives and threatening to turn the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait into a domestic Peking duck-pond, show the world the way by leading by example at home. As the complaint goes, the Chinese have a knack for plagiarizing. How about using that skill and copy a few lines from the U.S. Declaration of Independence? We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal and have inalienable rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness (slightly paraphrased). I promise, nobody will file a copyright infringement case. On the contrary, it would be nice if someone picked up the baton of DoI appreciation in its absence here at home on the entire left-to-right political spectrum.
If not Xi and his entourage, perhaps another Deng Xiaoping is waiting in the wings who’d be willing to bet on not only economic but also political freedom? In a nation of some 1.4 billion, is that really an impossible thought? Someone who would spearhead rolling back the surveillance state, divesting the economy of government involvement, solidifying property rights, deregulating finance and other industries, etc. If China were turned into a beacon of morality by protecting instead of violating individual rights, it’s not unthinkable the Taiwanese would come knocking.
"Someone who would spearhead rolling back the surveillance state, divesting the economy of government involvement, solidifying property rights, deregulating finance and other industries, etc." Sounds like Javier Milei! But he was elected only after Argentina reached rock bottom. And his success is still far from assured. I love your optimism, but I fear things must get worse before they get better.
“Sclerotic national health care.” In addition to the usual excellent content of your articles, you often display “delicious” prose!