“Ukraine Shares the Blame for Russia's Aggression” Revisited
Does my 2014 assessment hold up nine years later?
I sometimes find it instructive to go back and check if what I wrote in the past has stood the test of time. In April of 2014, shortly after the Russian invasion of Crimea, American Thinker published an article of mine titled “Ukraine Shares The Blame For Russia's Aggression.” Now, nine years later, on the verge of Ukraine's supposed spring offensive, let’s take a look at how it has held up. First, here’s the 2014 piece (minus a few outdated links):
There is not much to admire about Russia. She is an economic, cultural, and philosophical cesspool steeped in centuries of religious mysticism and political totalitarianism. With few exceptions, anything that has been accomplished within Russia’s borders the past 100 years has been done with Western capital and knowledge—gifted, bought or stolen (see East Minus West = Zero by Werner Keller for the fascinating history of Russia’s exploits).
Plagued by internal strife and self-inflicted economic hardships, Russia has traditionally blamed external forces for her problems, and used expansionist policies to divert attention from her domestic failures. Ukraine is the latest installment in this serial. With a large ethnic Russian population (17% average, but higher in the eastern provinces), the country is an easy target for Kremlin nationalistic rhetoric and aggression, the annexation of Crimea being the latest but probably not the last concrete manifestation.
However, Ukraine shares the blame for Russia’s aggression. After her independence in 1991, the country had a choice: look west and embark on a course of more political and economic freedom, or remain entrenched in the Soviet era mindset of political and economic corruption, cronyism, and favoritism. Former Soviet republics such as Estonia, Lithuania, Georgia and Latvia looked west resulting in a rocky but steady increase in economic freedom and prosperity. Ukraine did not.
Today, more than twenty years later, Ukraine is still one of the least free countries in the world. The Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom ranks Ukraine in 155th place of 178 countries, classifying her as repressed, which is behind Russia in 140th place, classified as mostly unfree. In contrast, Estonia (11th – mostly free), Lithuania (21st – mostly free), Georgia (22nd – mostly free), and Latvia (45th – moderately free) have made significant progress.
Economic freedom and prosperity are not substitutes for national security. But all other things being equal, they contribute greatly to staving off nationalistic tendencies. The Russian minority in the Baltic countries (Estonia 25%, Latvia 28%, Lithuania 6%) may have emotional ties to the mother country. But having more economic freedom and being more prosperous than their fellow Russians across the border tend to curb the enthusiasm for “re-unification.”
Looking elsewhere, Switzerland provides another example. Composed of ethnic Germans, Italians, and French, she has remained happily unified for hundreds of years thanks to her political and economic freedom and prosperity. Rarely if ever have there been calls by the respective ethnic groups to join their brethren across the German, French or Italian borders as the Swiss would have had nothing to gain and everything to lose, both politically and economically.
If Ukraine had embarked on a path of economic freedom and prosperity twenty years ago, distancing herself from her larger neighbor and the ways of the old Soviet regime, her ethnic Russian population may have been less inclined to support the call for annexation. And the black soil of Ukraine may not have been as fertile ground for the subversive tactics of Vladimir Putin.
If we are inclined to feel sympathy for the people of Ukraine, we should remember they are harvesting what they have sowed. The U.S. should stay out of the conflict as long as American lives and property are not at stake. Our focus should instead be on leading by example at home: increasing our own political and economic freedom, and unleashing growth by reducing taxes, government spending and regulations. This will show the rest of the world what the path to prosperity looks like, and if needed, provide an abundance of funds for our national defense when we really need it.
If we should take any blame for the Ukrainian debacle, it is that we haven’t looked after our own house; we haven’t been the role model at home that would have set the example for others to follow as was the case earlier in our country’s history. The American Revolution ignited calls for political reform both in Europe and in the Americas, culminating in the revolutions of 1848 which replaced age-old monarchies with parliamentary systems that were partly based on the American model. And the economic freedom of America’s Gilded Age—the 2nd half of the 19th century—which produced unprecedented growth and increased prosperity, forced other countries to copy parts of our formula for success to stem the brain drain caused by emigration to America.
Today, the Heritage Foundation ranks the United States in 12th place on the Index of Economic Freedom, after Estonia and just ahead of Bahrein, with the dubious distinction of being the only country in the world to have decreased her economic freedom each of the past seven years. Reversing this trend should be our chief concern, not the saber rattling of Crimeans and Cossacks.
Nine years later, I’m still an unabashed proponent of “leading by example at home” as the best foreign policy. Regrettably, the U.S. has not been a role model for freedom and individual rights over the past 15 years. In the Heritage Index of Economic Freedom rankings, our country has moved from 5th (with a score of 80.6 out of 100) in 2008 to 25th (70.6) in 2023. The index is obviously not an exhaustive measure of the human condition as it excludes a number of non-economic freedoms, but it definitely tells us something about the level and trends of freedom in a given country. But in case you think it is an aberration, the broader CATO/Fraser Human Freedom Index ranks the U.S. 23rd in 2020, a drop from 17th in 2016. So the downward trend is not in question.
Regrettably, the American people through their representatives didn’t heed my recommendation nine years ago (yes, it’s hard to be a prophet in your own land). As a result, our continued decline and lack of setting a good example at home is emboldening authoritarian and totalitarian regimes around the world—including factoring into Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
As for the other countries mentioned in the article, Estonia has moved from 11th (with an index of 75.9) to 6th (78.6) place, Latvia from 45th (68.7) to 17th (72.8), and Lithuania from 21st (73.0) to 20th (72.2) in the rankings, cementing the Baltic countries’ move towards more freedom. Georgia’s drop from 22nd (72.6) to 35th (68.7) reflects the increased Russian influence over the country. Russia’s improvement from 140th (51.9) to 125th (53.8) place is explained by the index’s exclusive focus on economic variables but is a drop from 113th (56.1) in 2022. Ukraine was not included in the 2023 rankings due to the war but had moved from 155th (49.3) in 2014 to 130th (54.1) in the 2022 rankings, showing a modest improvement but still behind Russia.
I’m still of the opinion that Ukraine is partially to blame for Russia’s aggression. Dramatic improvements in freedom are possible in a relative short time as shown by Latvia’s ascent in the rankings. Had Ukraine embarked on a similar path after the occupation of Crimea, the resulting improvements in standard of living may have softened the pro-Russian sentiments in the country’s eastern provinces. And a build-up of its military enabled by the increased prosperity, may have given Putin second thoughts about invading in 2022.
However, I acknowledge that neither a more pro-freedom and pro-individual rights United States setting a better example for other countries, nor a stronger Ukraine may have deterred the megalomaniac Putin with his twisted world view based in Russian nationalism and Orthodox Christianity. But it would have made Ukraine a stronger adversary that could have chased Russia off its territory by now, and possibly retaken Crimea as well.
So overall I give myself a modest but slightly depressing A- with respect to how well my 2014 article has held up. If anything, the title should be changed to “Ukraine and the U.S. share the blame for Russia’s aggression.” Do you agree? Let me know in the comments.
Cheers!