The Immigration Opportunity Window

The U.S. should seize the opportunity to attract the brightest and most ambitious from around the world while they still want to come.

“We’re a nation of immigrants.” It’s a cliché that is nonetheless true of all Americans if we go back far enough. It is in fact true of all peoples. Homo Sapiens is a migratory species. From our earliest hunter-gatherer days, we have responded to invaders, starvation, oppression, lack of opportunity, climate change, religious persecution, and other threats by migrating. The anthropological world map has never been static for long, instead constantly changing with wave upon wave of migration (watch this illustration of the European migration period as one of many examples). When arriving in a more promising location the newcomers were often perceived as threats by those already there. Conflicts frequently ensued resulting in further migrations of those drawing the short stick.

In the past quarter millennium, the dominant international migration wave has been to the United States first from Europe and Africa and later expanded to the rest of the world. As of 2010, more than 75 million people had immigrated to the U.S. since it was first settled, and the last 15 years have added to that count. In 2023, an estimated 48 million Americans, or 14.3%, were 1^st generation immigrants.

Will this immigration wave continue? The answer is probably yes. In a 2021 Gallup survey, around 160 million people around the world expressed a desire to immigrate to the U.S. That’s slightly less than half the current U.S population. Fewer would most certainly come if offered an explicit opportunity, as there is a difference between desire and execution. But the demand remains robust.

How long will it last? Probably until the rest of the world have reached a level of freedom and prosperity that makes the move less attractive. Uprooting yourself and your loved ones is a huge step; it requires a certain level of ambition, initiative, and appetite for risk to take the leap. Despite being historically migratory animals, the majority of us prefer to stay close to family and friends, where culture, customs and traditions are familiar.

Technological progress has certainly made the move easier. Cheap and fast transportation has facilitated “buyer’s remorse” and in-person visits; coming to America is no longer a certain one-way ticket with no prospects of returning like it was for the early immigrants. And no- or low-cost communication options (WhatsApp, Skype, Facetime, etc.) have vastly simplified staying in touch with faraway loved ones. But despite technological advances, for most people “there is no place like home.”

This means that America is facing a perhaps 50-to-100-year opportunity window to attract the brightest and most ambitious from around the world while they still want to come: students, scientists, entrepreneurs, farmworkers, healthcare professionals, hospitality staffers, education specialists—the list of demands goes on and on. Allowing them to immigrate in an orderly fashion using an immigration marketplace will create a strategic advantage in a world where the competition for people will only intensify. According to U.N. estimates, the world will reach peak population of slightly more than 10 billion in about 60 years, after which it will start to shrink. We already see this trend in most wealthy countries, where population growth is at best anemic.

But will we allow them to come? Just as newcomers were treated with suspicion during earlier migration waves, anti-immigration sentiments were a deciding factor in the recent election (and have frequently been since the founding of the republic). It appears, however, that the current sentiments were focused on the broken legal immigration system; most Americans have a positive view of immigrants granted they come here through approved channels.

The fact that we have a problem with illegal immigration is primarily due to the lack of sufficient legal paths to get here. Both established parties have cynically and immorally used immigrants as pawns in their political machinations. Our President Elect has responded with calls for mass-deportations rather than addressing the heart of the matter. If mass-deportations become policy, the electorate may quickly turn on him when they experience the negative economic consequences—increasing prices (more expensive products and services due to lack of cheap labor) and reduced economic growth (fewer people available to do the jobs that fuel it)—and when they see the human toll (separated families, deportation of individuals who have spent their entire life in the U.S., etc.)

Hopefully, it will not come to this. Hopefully, the new administration will moderate its immoral populist tendencies and work with Congress to create a lasting immigration legacy that over time will allow every American-in-mind born in the wrong country to come here—to our mutual benefit. The Think Right or Wrong, Not Left or Right “Welcome Home” initiative would be a good start.